Poll: Mack Expected To Win Florida GOP Primary

FLORIDA -- U.S. Rep. Connie Mack has an overwhelming lead over the Republican field for Florida’s U.S. Senate nomination, while Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson edges him by a nose, 43 – 39 percent, in a November match-up, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted in June 2012. 

In the GOP U.S. Senate primary, Republican registered voters give Mack 41 percent, while none of the other three candidates crack double digits. Former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux gets 8 percent, with Tea Party favorite Mike McCalister at 5 percent and former U.S. Rep. Dave Weldon at 3 percent. Another 39 percent of Republicans remain undecided. 

“At this point, the Republican Senate nomination is Congressman Connie Mack’s to lose,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 

Mack also runs best against Nelson among the GOP hopefuls. The Democratic incumbent‘s leads over the other GOP Senate aspirants is in double digits: 47 – 32 percent over LeMieux; 45 – 34 percent over McCalister and 47 – 31 percent over Weldon. 

Nelson’s razor-thin lead over Mack compares to a tie in the May 24 Quinnipiac University poll with Mack at 42 percent and Nelson at 41 percent. -more- Quinnipiac University Poll/June 21 – page 2 

“Sen. Nelson gets modest reviews from voters who give him a 47 – 32 percent job approval rating,” said Brown. “By 46 – 33 percent they say he deserves another term. He gets a 44 – 26 percent favorability rating. By comparison, Mack has a 34 – 22 percent favorability rating, with 42 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.” 

In the Nelson-Mack matchup, Nelson carries Democrats 80 – 9 percent and independent voters 44 – 33 percent, while losing Republicans 81 – 6 percent. Men split 42 – 42 percent while women go for Nelson 44 – 36 percent. 

From June 12 – 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,697 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 698 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.