Florida Poll: Obama Leads Romney, Mack and Nelson Tied

ORLANDO, Florida--  President Barack Obama leads presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney 45% to 39% amongst voters in Florida according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

This compares to the results of a May 3 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, showing Obama with an 8-point lead in Pennsylvania with Florida and Ohio too close to call.

Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows:
  • Florida: Obama edges Romney 45 - 41 percent;
  • Ohio: Obama over Romney 47 - 38 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 45 - 39 percent.

"President Barack Obama has decent margins over Gov. Mitt Romney in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a smaller advantage in Florida. If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 

"The president's overall margin is built on his big lead among women, younger voters and African-Americans. In Florida, on the heels of the president's order that will prevent the deportation of some younger illegal immigrants, he holds a big lead among Hispanic voters," Brown added.

The horse race numbers reflect the general view of voters that they like the president better. Obama has a net favorable view among Ohio voters and he is viewed evenly by those in Pennsylvania and Florida, while Romney's favorable/unfavorable ratio is negative in all three states.

Florida's Hispanic voters back Obama 56 - 32 percent, compared to 49 - 39 percent in a June 21 Quinnipiac University poll, conducted before Obama and Romney each made major addresses on immigration policy.

The president leads 85 - 6 percent among black voters while white voters back Romney 50 - 35 percent. Obama leads 47 - 40 percent among women, while men are divided with 43 percent for Obama and 42 percent for Romney.

Obama leads 81 - 7 percent among Democrats and 44 - 37 percent among independent voters, losing Republicans 86 - 8 percent.

Florida voters give Obama a split 47 - 47 percent favorability, while Romney gets a negative 37 - 42 percent favorability rating.

Romney would do a better job on the economy, 46 percent of Florida voters say, while 44 percent say Obama would do a better job. Obama would be better for their personal economic future, 46 percent of voters say, compared to 45 percent for Romney.

Florida voters support Obama's immigration initiative 58 - 33 percent and say 46 - 40 percent the president would do a better job on immigration.

Voters disapprove 48 - 35 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing, continuing a 16- month string of negative ratings.

Florida's U.S. Senate race remains too close to call as Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson gets 41 percent to 40 percent for U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the leading Republican challenger.

"The U.S. Senate race between Bill Nelson and Connie Mack remains a dead heat with 17 percent of voters still undecided, an unusually large number," said Brown       

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