Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Quinnipiac Poll: Clinton Leads Trump In Florida, Ties In Pennsylvania And Ohio

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in Florida

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton now has an eight-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida but is tied with Trump in Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released on Tuesday.

The latest polls have Clinton at 47% to Trump's 39% in Florida, a tie of 40% each in Ohio, and a statistical tie of 42% to 41% in Pennsylvania.


Clinton leads Trump 47 - 39% in the Sunshine State, compared to 43 - 42% in May. However, the poll was conducted from June 8 through June 19 and would not fully capture Florida voters' sentiment towards the candidates following the Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando by ISIS supporter Omar Mateen that occurred on the morning of June 12.  By a margin of 48 - 42%, Florida voters say that Trump would be more effective against ISIS.


The gender and racial gaps are wide in Ohio, where women are moving to Clinton in greater numbers, from 43 - 36% over Trump in May compared to 48 - 31% today. There is little change in Trump's support among men, 51 - 36% in May and 49 - 32% today.

White voters back Trump 46 - 32%, as non-white voters go to Clinton 78 - 8%.

"One reason why Trump may be doing better in Ohio, and for that matter in Pennsylvania as well, is that both states have small Hispanic populations, compared to Florida. Given Trump's comments on immigration and descendants of immigrants, the much larger Hispanic population in Florida is obviously a boost there for Hillary Clinton," Brown said.


The gender gap remains largely unchanged in Pennsylvania, where Clinton leads 50 - 34% among women, while Trump leads 50 - 33 percent among men.  White voters go Republican 47 - 38%, while non-white voters go Democratic 66 - 15%.

"In the Clinton-Trump acid test, Pennsylvania voters say Hillary Clinton is smarter, more morally grounded and better equipped to handle the 'what ifs,' the use of nuclear weapons and the management of an international crisis," said Tim Malloy, assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Sure Trump would be more fun at a barbecue and might crush ISIS more efficiently, but given it's a tossup on leadership, in the broad overview, Trump comes up short."

Margin of Error

From June 8th to 19th, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

975 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points;
971 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points;
950 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Photo credits: Trump and Clinton campaign photos.