Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Poll: Trump and Clinton tied in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania


Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are running neck-and-neck in the key presidential election swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released on Tuesday.

"Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. 

"At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida." 




Florida Toss-Up

Clinton and Trump are in a statistical tie in the Sunshine State at 43% to 41%. A 48% to 35% lead among women gives Clinton an overall score of 43%.  Trump's 49% to 36% lead among men gives the real estate mogul 42% of all Florida voters. 

By a wide margin of 54% to 40%, Florida voters say that Trump would do a better job than Clinton handling the economy, and 49% to 43% say that he would be better on terrorism. Florida voters also say 52% to 38% that Clinton is more intelligent than Trump.

Trump Leads In Ohio 

The gender and racial gaps are wide in Ohio, where Trump beats Clinton 43% to 39%. He leads 51% to 36% among men, while she takes women 43% to 36%. White voters go Republican 49% to 32%% as non-white voters vote Democratic 76% to 14%. 

The age gap narrows as 43% of voters 18 to 34 years old would vote for Clinton and 39% would vote for Trump, while voters over 65 go 46% for Trump and 40% for Clinton. 

"Ohioans oppose 'The Wall' 52% to 45% while they are overwhelmingly in favor of requiring a photo ID for anyone wanting to vote," Brown said. "They are happy with the economy and satisfied with the way things are going in the state% to all of which is a nice testament to Gov. John Kasich, who dropped out of the White House race last week, but might be back as Trump's running mate." 

Tied In Pennsylvania 

It's the same story of gender and racial gaps in Pennsylvania, where Clinton gets 43%to Trump's 42%. Clinton and Trump both have very negative favorability ratings in the Keystone State, 37% to 58% for her and 39% to 55% for him. 

"Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in Pennsylvania and they have similar, awful numbers on honesty and favorability," said Tim Malloy, assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.  

Sanders Leads Trump In All 3 States

Although Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders trails Clinton in the Democratic Presidential Primary delegate count, he does better against Trump in a match-up in all three swing states. Sanders trumps Trump by 47% to 41% in Pennsylvania, 44% to 42% in Florida, and 43% to 41% in Ohio.

Margin of Error

From April 27% to May 8 Quinnipiac University surveyed:

1,051 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
1,042 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
1,077 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

Photo credits: Trump and Clinton campaign photos.