Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Poll: Romney To Lose Big In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

President Barack Obama is over the magic 50 percent mark and tops Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters by 9 to 12 percentage points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today. 


Voters in each state see President Obama as better than Gov. Romney to handle the economy, health care, Medicare, national security, an international crisis and immigration. Romney ties or inches ahead of the president on handling the budget deficit. 


Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows:


Florida: Obama leads Romney 53 - 44 percent, compared to 49 - 46 percent August 23;


Ohio: Obama over Romney 53 - 43 percent, compared to 50 - 44 percent August 23; 


Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 54 - 42 percent, unchanged from 53 - 42 percent August 1. 


Likely voters say Obama can better handle the economy, the top issue listed by voters, 51 - 46 percent in Florida, 51 - 45 percent in Ohio and 51 - 45 percent in Pennsylvania.


"Gov. Mitt Romney had a bad week in the media and it shows in these key swing states," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The furor over his 47 percent remark almost certainly is a major factor in the roughly double-digit leads President Barack Obama has in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  The debates may be Romney's best chance to reverse the trend in his favor."


"The wide difference between the two candidates is not just a result of Romney's bad week. In Ohio and Florida votes are basically split down the middle on whether the county and they and their families are worse or better off than they were four years ago. If voters don't think they are worse off, it is difficult to see them throwing out an incumbent whose personal ratings with voters remains quite high," Brown added. 


"The president's strength results from the fact that for the first time in the entire campaign, he is seen as better able to fix the economy than is Romney, the issue that has been the Republican's calling card since the general election campaign began. And the economy remains the overwhelming choice as the most important issue to voters' presidential choice."


Florida

Women likely voters back Obama 58 - 39 percent while men are divided with 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Hispanic voters go Democratic 55 - 41 percent while independent voters are split with 49 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama. 


The economy is the most important issue for 47 percent of Florida voters, while 20 percent list health care; 10 percent list the budget deficit and 8 percent list national security. 


The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 - 41 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 - 40 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 52 - 42 percent and back the president 53 - 45 percent. 


Voters tip to Romney 48 - 46 percent on who would do a better job on the budget deficit. 


A total of 53 percent of Florida voters are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" in Obama's ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 46 percent for Romney. 


Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 57 - 40 percent, while Romney doesn't care, voters say 55 - 41 percent. 



Ohio

Obama leads 60 - 35 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men support Romney 52 - 44 percent. White voters back Romney by a narrow 49 - 46 percent, while 98 percent of black voters back the president. Independent voters are split with 47 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama. 


The economy is the most important issue for 49 percent of Ohio voters, while 21 percent list health care; 12 percent list the budget deficit and 5 percent list national security. 


The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 - 40 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 - 39 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 54 - 41 percent and back the president 52 - 44 percent. 


Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 49 - 45. 


A total of 55 percent of Ohio voters are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" in Obama's ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 46 percent for Romney. 


Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 59 - 38 percent, while Romney doesn't care, voters say 57 - 38 percent. 


If reelected, Obama policies would treat everyone the same, 31 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say he would favor the middle class; 25 percent say he would favor the poor and 8 percent say he would favor the rich. 


Romney policies would favor the rich, 58 percent of voters say; 29 percent say he would treat all the same, while 9 percent say he would favor the middle class and 1 percent say he would favor the poor. 


Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania women likely voters back Obama 58 - 37 percent, while men split with 49 percent for Romney and 48 percent for the president. Independent voters are split 48 - 48 percent. 


The economy is the most important issue for 48 percent of Pennsylvania voters, while 20 percent list health care; 11 percent list the budget deficit and 7 percent list national security.


The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 - 41 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 - 39 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 52 - 43 percent and back the president 50 - 46 percent. 


Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 48 - 45. 


A total of 57 percent of Pennsylvania voters are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" in Obama's ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 44 percent for Romney.


Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 60 - 37 percent, while Romney doesn't care, voters say 57 - 38 percent. 


If reelected, Obama policies would treat everyone the same, 29 percent of voters say, while 30 percent say he would favor the middle class; 26 percent say he would favor the poor and 9 percent say he would favor the rich. 


Romney policies would favor the rich, 59 percent of voters say; 29 percent say he would treat all the same, while 9 percent say he would favor the middle class and less than 1 percent say he would favor the poor. 



From September 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with CBS News and The New York Times, surveyed: 


1,196 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,162 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent; 1,180 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.