BREVARD COUNTY and SEMINOLE COUNTY, Florida - In a poll commissioned by the Ken Rhoden campaign submitted to Brevard Times, the raw results have Rhoden leading Blaise Trettis by 15.38%.
However, when poll results are refined to account for methodology bias and margin of error, Rhoden and Trettis are in a statistical dead heat.
The poll was conducted Gravis Marketing of Winter Springs, Florida. This poll contacted Republican voters in Brevard and Seminole counties and successfully reached 2,866 people via phone.
Only three questions were asked during the survey. They are:
Q1-Are you registered to vote?
Press one for Yes, Press two for No (Disconnect)
Q2-Do you plan on voting in the upcoming primary
election August 14th?
Press one for Yes, Press two for No (Disconnect)
Q3-Ken Rhoden and Blaise Trettis are running for Public Defender
in Seminole and Brevard counties. Out of the two candidate who are
you likelier to Vote for?
Only three questions were asked during the survey. They are:
Q1-Are you registered to vote?
Press one for Yes, Press two for No (Disconnect)
Q2-Do you plan on voting in the upcoming primary
election August 14th?
Press one for Yes, Press two for No (Disconnect)
Q3-Ken Rhoden and Blaise Trettis are running for Public Defender
in Seminole and Brevard counties. Out of the two candidate who are
you likelier to Vote for?
92.99% of those surveyed responded that they were registered to vote. For those who responded that they were not registered to vote - the survey ended.
The second question asked survey subject if they planned to vote in the primary on August 14. Of those asked, 95.44% responded "yes," 4.56% responded "no." The survey then ended for those who responded "no."
The final question asked which candidate the respondent would likely vote for. Of those, 57.69% pressed "1" for Rhoden and 42.31% pressed "2" for Trettis.
Brevard Times found significant deficiencies in the methodology of the poll because the lack of rotation (which is always done by major pollsters) permits bias by the respondent for button "1" which had associated with it a positive connotation (1 was "Yes" in both questions preceding the question for the choice of candidate).
So what is left is the examination of the 57% to 42% candidate choice raw data. When "1" choice bias is taken into consideration, the poll reveals that Rhoden and Trettis are in a statistical dead heat with a +/- margin of error of 7 percentage points reported by the pollster.
For more information about both candidates, review their profiles here:
We polled super voters. People that voted in 2 of 4 last primaries, so obviously you are going to get a significant Higher Llikely voter response. So please clarify that in your article.
ReplyDeleteCorrection. The pollster had responded, in industry shorthand, '2-4 primary voters' which does mean that those polled were primary voters in the last two primary elections.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the correction, 2 of 4 means they voted at least twice in the last 4 primaries. Gravis Marketing did not have a chance to speak with the Brevard Times regarding this poll, this was an internal poll for the campaign.
ReplyDeleteI would say that it was a huge sample size, and the results clearly favored Ken Rhoden, as of last week Mr. Rhoden was ahead.
I know that Mr. Trettis is working very hard and I am sure that this will be a very close election.
I demand a recount! There is an obvious problem with the chads.
ReplyDelete