Monday, March 5, 2012

Who Will Win On Super Tuesday?

All 2012 Super Tuesday GOP races on March 6 are proportional races with the exception of the Virgina Republican primary which converts from proportional to winner-take-all if a candidate captures more than 50% of the vote.  So it is unlikely that any candidate could claim wholly 'winning' a state with the exception of Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday.

Decisive momentum has eluded Romney despite heavy spending by the Romney campaign and pro-Romney Super PAC early in the 2012 Republican Presidential race.  While Romney is expected to grab around 200 delegates, that is still not enough to claim momentum over Santorum on an election day where two of the four candidates are running in their home states (Romney - Massachusetts, Newt Gingrich - Georgia).


Super Tuesday can be broken into three categories: Rick Santorum versus Romney, Ron Paul versus Romney, and Newt Gingrich versus Romney.

Santorum and Romney are battling for the delegate rich states of Ohio (66 delegates) and Tennessee (58 delegates).  Recent polls show Romney and Santorum in a dead heat of 32% to 34% in Ohio and 30% to 34% in Tennessee, respectively.  Such a tight spread in polling numbers could also mean a tie in the amount of delegates awarded to those candidates in those states.  Santorum holds a commanding lead in Oklahoma (43 delegates) while Romney is expected to take his home state of Massachusetts (41 delegates).

Paul and Romney are battling for the caucus states and Virginia primary.  Recent polls have not been conducted for the caucus states, but it is expected that Paul will do well because he focused his campaign in those states.  However, it is a different story in the Virginia primary where Paul would have to stop Romney from getting 50% of the vote in order to deny Romney the 43 winner-take-all delegates from that state.

Romney and Santorum are neck-and-neck for second place in Gingrich's home state of Georgia where Gingrich has always maintained a sizable lead.  The Gingrich campaign is also influencing the amount of delegates that Santorum and Romney would be able to garner from the Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma Republican primaries.


Below are the Super Tuesday states' delegate counts.  Recent polling percentages from various polls for each race are listed along with a projected amount of delegates each candidate will take based on recent polls.  In states where recent polls have not been conducted, the projection is based on recent respective regional performances by the candidates in earlier primary and caucus elections.








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DelegatesGingrichPaulRomney Santorum
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Georgia7638%-403%-024%-1822%-18
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Ohio6615% - 613%-032%-3034%-30
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Tennessee5818%-138%-030%-2034%-25
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Virginia49N/A-026%-069%-49 N/A-0
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Oklahoma43 22%-69%-026%-7 37%-30
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Massachusetts416%-09%-0 64%-35 21%-6
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Idaho32NP-0 NP-10 NP-12 NP-10
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N. Dakota28NP-0 NP-8 NP-10NP-10
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Alaska27NP-2NP-12 NP-7NP-6
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Vermont1710%-0 14%-3 34%-8 27%-6
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Kansas40NP-5NP-0 NP-10 NP-25
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Projected4777233206166